New Poll: States Trump Once Carried by Double Digits Now in Play for Dems
WASHINGTON--Growing dissatisfaction with the direction of the country and President Donald Trump’s economic policies is creating new political vulnerabilities for Republicans in two traditionally conservative states, potentially giving Democrats an opportunity to compete for a Senate seat in Ohio while intensifying an increasingly competitive battle in Iowa, according to new CNN polling conducted by SSRS.
The findings suggest that mounting concerns about the economy, the cost of living and the consequences of the administration’s trade policies could complicate Republican efforts to maintain their Senate majority in November’s midterm elections. Although both states have long favored Republicans in federal elections, the latest surveys point to significant discontent among likely voters, including widespread doubts about Trump’s leadership and the impact of his policies on household finances.
Trump won both Ohio and Iowa by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election. Republicans also currently control both states’ U.S. Senate seats and hold complete control of their respective state governments, giving the GOP a substantial political advantage heading into the midterms.
However, the new polling indicates that Republican dominance has not insulated the party from voter frustration. In both states, majorities of likely voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, believe his policies have contributed to rising living costs and view his administration’s tariffs on foreign goods as largely detrimental to their states.
Economic anxiety appears to be a particularly significant concern. Approximately four in 10 likely voters in both Ohio and Iowa said they are in a worse financial position than they were two years ago, underscoring the challenges Republicans face in persuading voters that the administration’s economic agenda is improving their lives.
The findings could have important implications for Senate control, as Democrats look to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the administration and expand the number of competitive races in states Trump carried decisively.
In Ohio, the polling points to a particularly favorable opening for Democrats. When likely voters were asked which party they would prefer to control the U.S. Senate following the midterm elections, 52% chose Democrats, compared with 48% who favored Republicans. The narrow advantage suggests that Democratic candidates could have a viable opportunity to challenge the GOP in a state that has increasingly leaned Republican in national elections.
Iowa presents a more difficult landscape for Democrats, although the results suggest Republicans cannot take their advantage for granted. Likely voters there favored continued Republican control of the Senate by 53% to 46%, a margin considerably narrower than Trump's double-digit victory in the state two years earlier.
Taken together, the surveys highlight a potential disconnect between Republicans’ recent electoral success and voters’ current assessments of the country's direction. While Trump’s victories established a strong Republican position in both states, dissatisfaction over economic conditions and the administration’s policy decisions could reshape the political environment ahead of November.
For Democrats, Ohio represents a potential opportunity to turn voter discontent into a meaningful Senate pickup, while Iowa offers a reminder that even Republican strongholds may become more competitive when economic concerns and presidential approval weigh heavily on voters.
The polling does not guarantee a Democratic victory in either state, and preferences for Senate control do not necessarily translate directly into individual candidate support. Nevertheless, the results point to a challenging political environment for Republicans as they seek to defend their Senate majority amid growing voter concerns about the economy and the direction of the Trump administration.